Assessing the Race for Champions League
Who's in control, and who's slipping away?
Episode Summary
Mike, Myles, and Dave break down the Premier League race for Champions League football, now that five spots are confirmed for English clubs. The discussion covers Forest’s inconsistency, Newcastle's resurgence, Chelsea’s collapse, Man City’s unpredictable form, and Aston Villa's impressive run.
Aired on April 13th 2025.
Time Stamped Topics
00:00 – Welcome
00:48 – Nottingham Forest's form and run-in
08:33 – Newcastle up to 4th – can they keep climbing?
14:07 – Man City looking strong, even without Haaland
21:20 – Chelsea the most out of sorts in the race?
27:45 – A huge opportunity for Aston Villa
39:49 – Assessing Villa vs PSG
49:02 – Can Man Utd progress vs Lyon?
SEO Keywords
Premier League podcast, football podcast UK, Champions League race, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Man City, Chelsea, football analysis, EPL talk
Full Transcript
00:00
[Music] hey how's it going welcome to the Football Diary podcast this week uh just wake me up when the season ends will you lads i've had enough now after losing to Newcastle um I have had enough of the season but many haven't and there's a lot of clubs still fighting for Champions League football especially now there's five places confirmed uh for English clubs so I think Myles has suddenly got a glint in his eye that the season might actually turn out quite positive in the league whatever happens
00:30
in the cups so we are going to focus on that this week I think and go through the clubs that are from third down to sixth and just assess what their runings look like look at the results this weekend and try and figure out if we can see what the table's going to look like in our opinion if you agree or disagree amazing get involved have a conversation with us and we can uh talk about that as well but let's start with the team that's currently third in the Premier League table guys which is Nottingham
00:53
Forest who by all accounts had a a rubbish weekend losing 1 nil to Everton in dramatic late fashion as well so let's have a look at Forest's results look at their running look at their likelihood of staying in the top five um I'll start with you Myles what did you make of the game first of all a lot of criticism from Forest fans about Nuno's setup um and about them being too defensive obviously Alanga didn't start which I think was a mistake and it looked like they were trying to just I don't know contain for a while and then
01:21
hit on the break and it just never came did it yeah it was an odd way to kind of face this Everton side i think if you were playing a Shaun D side you never would have done that and I don't think they really anticipated what a David Moyes Everton could do to break them down and they didn't offer enough going forward to to kind of put the pressure on them and you're right not starting a langanger in the kind of form he's been in and the pace that that offers you in behind Everton's fullbacks who aren't
01:46
necessarily the defensive uh stability that they they need that could have been a really good avenue to explore so it'll be a really frustrating result for them and looking at their recent form in the league as we will it it adds to the inconsistency so it would definitely be frustrating for Forest fans that this isn't somewhere that they they wouldn't have wanted to drop points in this fixture really a home tie against a side that yes they are on the up and actually if you look at Everton's form since
02:11
Moyes come in I think they're fifth in the league in the form table which is crazy but it is still a side that we know can be got at so yeah frustrating one yeah it was a game where I think looked like nothing was going to happen forest did it Dave really and that's the frustrating thing because they can hurt teams and you expected them to do something uh Everton to their credit contained really well and took their opportunities and actually were on the front foot for large periods weren't they and they deserve their goal I think
02:35
it's fair to say do you think Forest fans are right first of all to be critical of Nun for this result and the the setup for the game against a team that was in the bottom half of the league but also concern for their Champions League players at this point yeah it's strange isn't it i think you've we've seen a lot of teams especially over the last few weeks struggle against Everton we've seen Arsenal drop points seen obviously United obviously struggle against them as well although that's not it's not
02:59
diff difficult to should be being teams like Man United yeah I think the way they set up it actually proved quite difficult for Forest i think in that 4411 um formation they kind of prioritize a low block and they had the likes of um Gay and uh Decor really pressing high in those areas where they were struggling to find get through those passing lanes forest where they normally do find a lot of joy I think through Gibbs wine um and Hudson Adoy on the in in those wide areas you you looked at Michelenko and
03:32
both fullbacks actually kind of playing quite narrow so they were weren't were struggling to get on those overlaps and find space in behind like they normally do forest if you look at what they create not a great deal of of no I think their xG was 67 average season average is about 1.5 so it says a lot really I mean if you look at the game in the whole it's largely dominated by controversial V or no V call decisions that are very much sort of on the edge i think you look at obviously the um the better one
04:08
for for Everton um and then yeah I just I just think you could argue could have had two penalties in there one for Everton one maybe one or two for Forest um but again I think it was decided by V potentially just sitting on the fence referee sitting on the fence and again it's these decisions are deciding games yeah big games that have lost now in a row Myles obviously against Aston Villa which I didn't feel like must win at the time but it's looking more and more like it when you look ahead at the fixtures
04:38
for Forest and obviously a game against Everton which maybe a month or so ago you probably would have had them down to win this quite comfortably considering their attacking firepower but now the the road ahead looks really tough for Forest doesn't it is this something that you think they can turn around because we know they've got it in them looking ahead at the next couple of fixtures to begin with it can they get back on a good footing again they've got the FA Cup in there too so there's a lot on
05:03
their plate right now isn't there yeah it's frustrating for Forest because it felt like for the longest time they weren't in the conversation it was they'd secured it it was done really i mean Forest fans won't have thought that they'll always be realistic about their side but as a neutral looking you thought that fourth and fifth were up for grabs and it does now feel like third is up for grabs i mean Forest are three points ahead of Villa and Villa are seventh so that's a frustrating position for Forest to find themselves
05:28
in when you think about how much they were blowing teams away and they need to get back to that quite quickly i mean they've got a great a great fixture coming next they go and play Spurs so they they have to win that they absolutely have to win that because then Brenford come to the City ground after that brenford are doing so well away from home at the moment i mean they they've just taken a point against Arsenal and if Forest drop points in that game then it really does open the conversation up again for them and the
05:54
FA Cup run is such a magic thing for them but it does feel like maybe they could have just done with one area of focus and if they don't get top four or top five sealed it will feel like such a loss at this stage it wouldn't have four weeks ago but now you're so close and and there really is such fine margins in it that these will be the games that they root i mean if they'd beaten Villa last week we're talking about yeah they've done it they're third they've sorted it there's no way now all of a
06:22
sudden four teams competing with them now for that space that's hard that's hard i can't tell whether it's a blessing or a curse for their next fixtures up until the last game at least to be against teams that aren't also involved in this Champions League race you know they're teams with relatively little to play for so you mentioned obviously Spurs next uh they've got Brenford then Palace then Leicester then West Ham and then finally Chelsea on the the last day which could be huge it could be a complete writeoff we don't
06:47
know yet and I don't know if it's actually more valuable to be playing the teams around them and start taking points off them in the process or not what do you think Dave are you thinking that those teams in the next run of fixtures up until the final day are winnable because that potentially they are not necessarily teams that are fighting for anything or do you think that actually perhaps there's no pressure there for them so they can just you know go at Forest and do what Everton did essentially you could say
07:12
that about a lot of teams in this league though couldn't you really it almost feels like the season's drawing out to like a massive massively underwhelming close if we're being honest but for quite a few teams we mentioned out a couple of matches i thought the Liverpool game today even though Liverpool looking to win win the title felt like testimonial at times it was just so so slow in pace so yeah I don't know if it will be a lack of experience that might cost them to going towards these if they got any form of Europe
07:44
that'll be a massive success for forest and let let's hope it they don't fall off you know massively i just Yeah it's it's there are a few difficult games left um notably one at Palace and at West Ham away i think there'll be two difficult away games you'd expect them to beat Spurs next i mean the pressure is on isn't it really that this is a you know massively high pressure game because they're they're expected to go there and beat them because you look at Tottenham at the minute you know the we've been saying all season we don't
08:16
know how Cogley is still in charge at the helm but coming off back in Europe as well I suppose won't they so yeah it's it's the good the good thing is obviously teams around them that are dropping points as well with the exception of Villa at the minute who on this crazy run in the league well you say that Dick but we're going to move on to Newcastle X are now up into fourth which changes everything doesn't it they beat obviously Manchester United pretty convincingly 4-1 uh today as we record and yeah it's pretty miserable game for
08:46
United fans because there were so many errors but they were clinical Newcastle to their to their credit weren't they Myles and they got players like Harvey Barnes coming in and and playing so well and finishing so brilliantly and that midfield looks really really strong and they've got that extra game in the hand which with form taken into account looks like it could really give them that momentum to cement third place if not um not any higher than that you know that's an an incredible achievement for
09:10
Newcastle isn't it and they look like probably I guess with Villa who we'll come to in a moment the team with the best form right now yeah and it's funny because you think back to when Guardiola first came to England he always talked about how the League Cup was such an important thing because it was like getting that silverware early in the season gives you the confidence for the running and it feels like we're seeing that with Newcastle now like the whole city is lifted by that trophy so now that they're kind of back in the
09:36
conversation so firmly because there was a period was it what probably around Christmas where we were saying yeah Newcastle they look really dangerous then they fell off a little bit and kind of lost the kind of momentum we thought they'd picked up and now they're they're right back in it again i mean a win against Palace midweek and they're third that's that's a huge turnaround for them and you have to say as long as they keep everyone fit and they don't lose Isach for the rest of the season or Tali
10:02
doesn't get a long injury for the rest of the season they look favorites to me they they look like the best side in it in that race now I mean they tore you guys apart today that second half i mean you definitely helped them out there was definitely a a bit of a a charity element to United's defending but generally speaking Newcastle have been so clinical in those moments and that's why they managed to secure themselves a trophy and it's probably why they secure probably third if not fourth in the league really it looks
10:31
huge though that game against Villa doesn't it on the 19th that and the Arsenal game as well um not that Arsenal have got much to play for either but again we don't know if they're going to get any worse in the league but yeah that game against Filla looks huge coming up doesn't it they got Chelsea as well which is another big one like Newcastle's fixtures are a very odd mix because you don't know what to expect from Crystal Palace because they they've been in excellent form themselves you saw them against City this weekend take
10:57
a 2-0 lead and then kind of terrible defending handed it back to City which is frustrating but they could be there as a real test for Newcastle only Arsenal have won at Villa Park in the league this year so they've still got that journey to make as Well I mean they've got a pretty good record against us recently so I'm not sure they'll be too worried about it but then Brighton and Chelsea as well that's and Arsenal that's they're not easy fixtures for Newcastle but you wouldn't put it past them so not easy fixtures though i mean
11:23
I think I think I think even in the last day last game of the season it's going to be very unpredictable if it comes to that last game because you don't know what you're going to get at Man United and Old Trafford forest obviously still got to play Chelsea and then Newcastle have got Everton of Everton have only lost to since David Moes has come back they've only lost to Liverpool in the top six so they're not going to be any pushovers either i think it's the the squad of Newcastles like you say Mars if it stays
11:49
fit they're probably one of the best quality squads in contention and they have won a trophy as well so they've kind of got the bit between their teeth and I think for me that makes Newcastle probably one of the favorites to finish maybe third um in my opinion and we'll talk about the final like lineups of the teams uh later on but Dave what did you think of of Newcastle performance in the United game try and put aside your United lens for a moment and look at it from a Newcastle United perspective what
12:14
did you think to their their their clinical edge i guess it just overpowered United i think um that that front three caused them a lot of problems and Jacob Murphy and Isac Harvey Barnes I think I think they've done admirably quite well considering you look at the last few weeks um a lot of the energy they've put into some of these matches obviously off the back of the the the cup final as well um really just out overpowered them in terms of their physical you know stature and the intensity that they showed pressing
12:48
United and it forced them into mistakes i mean it's not alien to this team is it we've seen some of the mistakes made over the last few weeks united cost them but this is a Newcastle side that have have shown this season that on the day against even the best sides in the league they're capable of of overpowering any team in the league and there was obviously that first goal was outstanding I thought for from the pass from Isac and Tali you know it's top top technique to to really just drill that
13:20
perfectly and the power he gets on it you know Binder has got absolutely no chance so I don't know if we've learned a lot that we don't we didn't already know about this Newcastle team i think what we've shown they've shown since the cup final there's not been any hangover from that um they've been showing the same consistency that they've had in the large part of the season um and like we've been saying the last two or three weeks they're probably one of the favorites really to be getting champ
13:47
Champions League i'd be very surprised if they didn't to be honest i think it's it's going to be a massive game against Villa isn't it that's that could really be a season decider so I think so i think that's the game where we will probably have a different assessment of how this race looks once that's been played but yeah Newcastle looking very strong before we move to a break guys let's talk about Manchester City we've touched already on their performance against Crystal Palace coming down from a two-nil deficit and
14:15
winning the game convincingly in the end 5-2 and obviously Kevin De Bruyne has just announced that he's leaving the club at the end of the season and I think the club didn't they told him he wasn't going to feature basically so it was kind of not in his hands but he played brilliantly in this game and I think City are starting to show elements of the next phase of their evolution under Pep Guardiola in that second half against Crystal Palace Myles was a real marker wasn't it like it was a sign of
14:39
what these newer players Marouch especially can do at their best yeah they're they're not missing Erling Harland are they they're still sticking five past Palace who have been a side we've been praising i mean it was a palace side without Mark Gahhee and that makes a huge difference definitely but generally speaking yeah city look like they're building something again and it's interesting to see whether De Bruyne will be the only one that goes in the summer i think there'll probably be more changes than that there's still an
15:04
era of will Guardiola kind of have his eye on anything else i think I know he signed the deal this year but the way this season's gone you never know champions League's not secured for them and they've got a really interesting running as well i mean they've still got to play Villa which will be a really interesting game villa have obviously already beaten them once this season that could be huge for him we never know what to get what we're going to get from City which is such a weird state to be
15:26
in because for the longest time you just felt like there's no point even watching the City games it's already a foregone conclusion that they're going to blow away whoever they play and I mean yes they got a result in this game but you have to wonder how they found themselves 2-0 down so easily as well and that's the thing that other teams in the race will be holding on to and looking out for that while this rebuild is taking place and yes players like Makati and O'Reilly they look excellent and look
15:50
like they're going to add a lot to City going forward it's still inconsistent and you definitely don't bank on them being the kind of standout performers each week i mean you mentioned Mammoose there he's the one for me and they'll be relying on him staying in such good form for this like running now i think he's got six Premier League goals already all of them at home which is a really interesting thing but like how is he adapting to this city side he seems to really relish playing at the Etihad
16:15
which is uh not something I'm sure many players will talk about but hey ho and this change in De Bruyne moving over as well i mean you don't you don't really need him as your playmaker when Edison's got seven Premier League assists now but that's impressive there's things Yeah it's ridiculous there's things for City to to hold on to and there's things that they can base the rest of their season on it's just whether they can they can kind of address this inconsistent form in the league that we've kind of seen
16:38
from them since well when was it that this all started going wrong october November now it's crazy it feels like most of the season but no they started pretty brightly and you forget that and the slump went on for so long that it did damage their season we thought almost beyond repair but I mean credit to them for trying to to pull something back out of it and actually still being in contention and still being in the semi-final of the FA Cup as well city do uh Dave still look like a threat don't
17:04
they when they're performing well and two-0 down to Palace I was wondering how bad this could get but Palace kind of undid it for themselves to a degree as well but City showed how ruthless they can be even without hurling Eurling Harland in the side as well but looking at their running Dave obviously they've got Everton Goodison which Goodison's days are numbered so this every game at Goodison now feels like it could be difficult they've obviously got Aston Villa as well which Villa and Villa sorry Everton and Villa seem like
17:31
protagonists in most clubs races don't they for the Champions League which is mental uh then they've got an FA Cup semi-final against Forest which could take a lot out of them you just just don't know but their actual final stretch city looks the easiest I think out of the lot they've got Wool Southampton Bournemouth and Fulham which I mean that could be a coast couldn't it at that point but how do you rate City's form first of all and they're they're running looking at those Dave yeah I think there's a good case that they
17:55
could win those final four games isn't it really you look at the teams that are coming up against um potentially probably not going to have a lot to play for um an already relegated Southampton team a Wolves team that's let's be honest probably safe now um Fulham on the last day could potentially throw a Spanner in the works but yeah these next two games are huge for them um I think it'd be encouraging for for Guardiola that they came back in the way that they did because we've seen them so many times this season go behind and
18:27
kind of really strugg to show a reaction um and come come from behind and win but they've done it and I think yeah they really did pose some problems for for Palace in those wide areas created some wide overloads and I think in those um key areas where De Bruyne managed to a bit space and time just created we saw him at his best and um not much else to say as United fan and obviously it's great to see him play how he does at times you know you can only admire the way he plays but yeah they they they
19:01
really did struggle defensively um and showed lapses in like in key key areas uh of the game i think that Maya you look at that foul that he makes for the City's first goal that really turned the tide of the game massively for them but yeah I think looking at that run in they probably have got the easiest um easiest fixture list of of the lot i don't think there's an easy any easy um any team has a completely easy run if we're being honest i think there there are some tasty fixtures in there and that's what
19:35
makes it you know all the more fascinating for us and hopefully that that is that's the case for the last two or three weeks of the season you also can't say too much about City's fixtures being easy let's not forget that before this they failed to beat Man United in their last game which I think that that tells you all you need to know doesn't it about their running well final word on City then Myles looking at their their running obviously the final four games look like they could be relatively
19:59
comfortable with the teams involved but the next two games obviously Everton and then Villa it's probably make or break in them too for them isn't it in some ways yeah the the Villa game being at the Etiad is huge for them i think I think the fact that they've got the home fixture there probably makes them favorites for it but again I I just don't know what to expect from a City side like I I kind of ingest make a comment about the United game but I did watch that last week and think they look terrible and then the second half of
20:28
this game against Palace they look back to being Manchester City i mean there was a moment where De Bruyne put the ball in for Marmush and I think Henderson produced like a brilliant save but it was a textbook Man City move and felt like yeah they're back in that moment but it's moments that you see that in they don't have it in them for 90 minutes it feels like so yeah the last four fixtures that you mention they're basically on the beach fixtures i wonder whether that almost puts too much pressure on Man City and I also
20:55
wonder whether teams still feel a bit of value in playing Man City this year like every team kind of feels like no this could be our moment to get a win over Pep Guardiola and every coach is definitely going to feel that aren't they so they're still vulnerable i think I still think there's there's there's points to be played for in their fixtures they probably do have the most favorable and I think when we come to our predictions later on that will probably show for all of us we've got two more to go through and I think we'll
21:19
start with the next one in the table which currently is Chelsea um I don't know how long that'll be for but they're in six Myles um Chelsea looking probably like the lowest ranking team that are going to finish out of this pile at the moment because their form is so poor so unpredictable um and this weekend was no exception was it this Chelsea was not a team that looked like they were Champions League ready was it has anyone seen Cole Palmer that's the thing I can't get my head around their form was
21:43
dropped off a cliff since his and that that can't be sustainable for a club that's spending as much money as they have for them to be so reliant on one player's output and their whole form to seem to hinge on that it's really noticeable um yeah Chelsea I mean not beating it at all this season that's going to bite them i think their fixture that they have left are definitely the hardest of all of the teams still fighting for it I think and they look the worst you're right so yeah I I think they've probably counted themselves out
22:14
and again earlier in the season they were a team where we were going "Wo they they could be challenging for serious honors this year and it just seems to disappear." But they'll probably win the Conference League still and be happy won't they i don't I honestly don't know because the Conference League at this point feels like a distraction for the the important thing which is qualifying for the Champions League again and Champions League qualification I think for Chelsea as you say financially so
22:38
important because their model is completely unsustainable without it uh which is why it'd be kind of interesting to see what would happen if they didn't qualify would there be player sales would would players like Palmer move on who is definitely a higher level in him than than Chelsea at the moment I think but their their form has been so indifferent and that's been the case for a while hasn't it Dave for the whole second half of this season Chelsea have just really slid down the table this game against Dipsswer were a weird bogey
23:04
team for them this season showed some of the good but also loads of the bad of this Chelsea team what do you make of them they're a bit of a an enigma aren't they i'd never know what to expect from game to game from them yeah i mean it's been a strange one hasn't it because we were talking about them what probably even 10 games ago that they look like a side that were finally coming together under and Morasa and then Mars is right you know all of a sudden Cole Palmer goes on this long run of um not scoring
23:33
goals and they lose any sort of threat um and attacking power that they did have nicholas Jackson gets injured obviously is out for quite a while and they just look lacking of ideas they you know they they're a team that are capable of dominating games through possession and that's the kind of coach and manager that Moresca is he likes to his team to retain possession of the ball for large spells of the game but they just lack any sort of incisiveness or attacking creativity in in them to to decide games and it's a dull watch isn't
24:07
it if if we're being honest yeah a little bit and that they've shown over the last couple of weeks two or three weeks even that they get caught out in moments you know this is an IP switch team that largely struggled this season you go 2-0 up and away Chelsea and I think there's going to be a lot there's going to be another clear out if you ask me and I don't whether they can afford to do that is another thing because you look at the the expenditure that's that's already happened then it's going to be fascinating to be
24:37
honest it's going to be a fascinating transfer winner we say that all the time don't we with with Chelsea I mean it's it's a bit of a comedy if we're being honest now well I think the length of contracts they've got for their players and the value has pretty much declined for the majority I would say of players that they've signed in recent years that's the challenge because they'd have to sell players and get and make money on them um with the contracts these players are on that probably not going
25:00
to be the case so they almost need to invest in the team they've got and it's just not working is it Myles at the minute like you said their running is by far the most difficult some really big hitters in them final games as well as this uh conference league tie against Legend of Warsaw which you know you expect them to go deep if not win that competition too so it could be a very odd season for them from here on in yeah and it's another one where all of their recruitment hinges on are they back in
25:25
the Champions League or not as well like if you look at the the level of players Chelsea signed in the summer they did a lot of business for Moresque how many of them have been successful that they signed this season really i'm I'm not sure you'd say any of them would you like Cedo was the year before and he's kind of been the standout player for them this year netto's not really done anything sancho's not really done anything drew Hall doesn't even exist anymore it seems like it it's an odd transition for Chelsea where I don't
25:57
look at that side and think they're anywhere near Champions League quality so the fact that they've even kept themselves in the conversation for this long surprises me and I think it speaks more on the inconsistency of the other teams in the league than it says for them so yeah they they should go and win the Conference League that guarantees them a place in the Europa League next year they'll probably get one of those through the league anyway so that is that that's improvement I suppose on last season so they'll have to take that
26:23
in this kind of rebuild that they're going under and they they took on a coach who's completely untested at this level so if he can secure them a a European trophy let's call it that and a place in the Europa League next year it's not bad i don't know i mean Moresca at the start his whole success which it was at the start there was a plenty of reasons to kind of lord the way the team were playing the way he was rotating the way he was managing European football the way he was keeping the squad relatively happy these were all things
26:52
that we were saying yeah he's doing a decent job so far and while things were going well that was always going to be the case but you then s start to look at his very black and white management style and the way he does rotate players and cast players aside quite ruthlessly and you do think is it a team really like the I think squads the best teams that are doing as well this season are actual teams you can see cohesiveness you can see them wanting to fight for the manager and fight for the players
27:16
around them like Aston Villa is a case in point which we'll come to in a moment liverpool even this season under Arnold slot have continued to be a team and we've got players there that are signing new contracts and still want to be invested in it how many Chelsea players are actually happy at Chelsea right now i couldn't tell you because it looks like a miserable place to be and I think that's probably what will let Chelsea down it's just that I don't know me end of the season will just continue and the
27:38
fixtures will come thick and fast and they will struggle um but that's my two pence worth on Chelsea i want to get on to Villa next some would say we save the best till last um in this conversation but they're just lower in the table so at the minute not quite the best but on form obviously barring this Champions League result against PSG villa have been fantastic and we will talk about PSG before we end the pod but not just yet let's talk about the fixtures and the league Myles um a comprehensive win
28:05
this weekend which we expected obviously with with some changes there too again which we expected so the squad and the team should be fresher for the next leg against PSG but how do you rate Villa's chances of maintaining the league form based on what you've seen big question i don't even know where to start with it i mean the fixture list is is difficult it's a really difficult run of fixtures i mean the Newcastle game like you said earlier is going to be huge then we go on to City straight after that so I mean
28:33
there's six points that if we take they're not just it feels like more than six points doesn't it because it's the teams that we're we're trying to face off with juggling that along with the two cup competitions like we're the only side in England that are fighting on three fronts right now that is hard i mean that might end this week with the PSG tie i think a lot of people expect that it will but yeah I I still think we've got a great chance of it to be honest because the depth of this squad is showing three substitutes scored in
28:59
this game for us this season first time that's ever happened for a Premier League side three players come off the bench and score that's brilliant and it shows you what this squad has because yes we rotated but it didn't look like a weakened side against Southampton i was alarmed when I first saw the lineup because I was thinking guys it's Southampton we don't need everyone here like give Tiemans and Concer a game off for a minute but look that's the options that we've got in this squad we've got
29:21
the depth there and we we should be able to compete with anyone for this place i think the business they did in January we've talked about a lot attacking wise makes us a really threatening prospect for any of these teams and we're giving people something to think about going forward a lot more often so yeah I think although we have that tough run of fixtures and I think it's more difficult than cities definitely like we talked about it still feels like it should be in Villa's hands because they can take
29:46
points off their rivals yeah well the next three games Dave after the the Champions League tie look really difficult don't they for Villa and I think Myles has said this is probably the main reason why he's less optimistic than he probably could be so how do you see those games Dave um playing out obviously Newcastle's the big one at Villa Park which I think is huge but Man City at the Etihad and actually to be fair even Fulham I keep discounting Fulham from the Champions League conversation but if they win I think
30:12
their game in hand they're still three points away from you so I think we could count full out just because the amount of teams above them yeah possibly but yeah apologies to Fulham fans but yeah okay looking at those those fixtures Dave i think that obviously the next two are key aren't they yeah I mean even the the Bournemouth game i mean they're away at Bournemouth we've seen how dangerous a team they can be at times i know they've lost their way a little bit the last few weeks but I wouldn't discount
30:37
them either um it's obviously I think a lot was going to hinge on that PSG game i think if they somehow get result of that i mean I I can't see it myself but can you imagine obviously that carries them obviously into the next few weeks of the season as well rotating the squad's going to be a big um obviously a big mission I think for for Ray and let's not forget about the FA Cup pilot it's going to be a really interesting few weeks and a few a couple of results could ultimately ruin the season or
31:14
listen Dave I'm going to I'm going to press you for some more decisive answers than that cuz this is that's too much on the fence for a neutral fan villa Man City Villa Newcastle how's those games going to go i need to get an answer from you man i think it's going to be a draw the Newcastle Villa game still sitting on the fence i think it'll be a draw i can see probably one or or two or I think there will be opportunities i think Newcastle will have looked to expose Villa at the back and playing out
31:39
from the back i think you would looked at the intensity that they played um and with their front three and how physical they are with their midfield and Joington and Tenoli um at the center of that that they can pose any team problems um and I think they will look to um make an impact in that way but I don't think either team want to risk too much because there's still so much to play for i think a point for both teams would would be wouldn't be a bad result if we're being honest that's the wor about
32:09
both those fixtures isn't it from a neutral point of view dave's right both that and the City game both teams could go "All right I'll have a point here let's just No no one's going to gain any ground here let's see how the rest of them play out." That I am a bit nervous about that um and then yeah the City game it's very dependent on what City turns up isn't it the last few weeks they've just been such a a mixed back um Villa could easily hurt them we've seen how devastating they are in transition i
32:39
think that's the way they want they they'll want to play and they've not just got quick players Villa you know they can bully you you know you look at the likes of Rogers Jacob Ramsey on his debt like these are real physical players um and they they will take you apart if you give them the opportunity to do that so I'm going to say probably win that i think they'll probably beat City yeah i think from then on in as well I think like you say the Fulham game away at Bournemouth again can be difficult but I don't think Bournemouth
33:06
will be particularly driven to get a result out of that apart from just having a good the finish to the season spurs at home again is Spurs we don't even know if An should be there at this point do we and then Man United at Old Trafford on the final day of the season which I mean definition of a writeoff for United I think we'll be on the beach by then and waiting for the season to end so if you boys beat us on the final day and it costs us a place in the Champions League I'm not doing podcast anymore i think I feel apologetic mate
33:35
i'd be a bit gutted for you to be fair one good performance you have in your belt for that game I will be livid right okay you could be I mean you look at the run of each each of those teams and you mention um you know there's there's argue arguably probably not an easy run in out those last few teams i think there could be a lot of drop points and be honest from all teams that's what the league's been like all season as a whole hasn't it it's been so back and forth between every team it's really hard to
34:06
judge fixtures this year because the middle so congested like we've talked about all season the quality is so well distributed amongst that I I can't call Villa Fulham very well i can't call Bournemouth Man City very well those fixtures are tighter than they've ever been it feels like in a Premier League season between the kind of the teams fighting at the top end yeah and the ones that you would normally go well they'll probably be 10th 11th 12th fire up yeah i think a key difference for that for me is you look at some of
34:34
the coaches that some of these teams have got you know lots of Brighton Bournemouth um Form even Marco Silva the job he's done there you look at tactically how well they are set up and how well they're coached i think that's a key difference in in previous seasons now they they know how to beat some of the bigger teams and probably where they are the underdogs it suits them in ways that's where Villa should have an edge in this conversation because I don't think anyone would dispute we've got the
35:02
best manager out the four well other than Guardiola sorry probably should throw that in there out of Newcastle Forest Chelsea and Villa you're taking Emry over the coaches i mean Nuno's doing a fantastic job at Forest don't get me wrong but Emry is a much better manager than any of them i think I feel like this is this is new territory for him though to be fair isn't it this is new territory for Nuno to be competing at this level and I feel like that's where his naivity is showing at the moment is that he's his team aren't
35:28
being set up in a way to take the initiative and to to push his team to victory they're kind of almost failing into the end of the season in some ways whereas Unai Emory has got loads of experience to draw upon and failures as well where he he should have done differently so I think you're right max we don't need to talk about that no no no um but yeah I think a filler and interesting one i think for those next two games there's no defeats in there it's a very interesting story um and as you say the unknown of the rest of the
35:56
fixtures is what is making this conversation so fascinating and so to finish it Myles you've run the numbers you've put the results in you think are going to happen and you've got a table of sorts to to call upon so go through yours from a guess from from third down assuming you think Arsenal aren't going to slide any further from third down to seventh what do you think you don't want me to start from top i think that's a given now isn't it title race really the media need to calm down i definitely had
36:20
Liverpool and Arsenal in the top two uh and then what I'm going for I don't like it necessarily but it's I'll take it uh City third Newcastle fourth Villa fifth Forest okay so Forest sorry Forest fans but Myles is saying that your team are slipping right out of the conversation about Chelsea there chelsea seventh as well chelsea seventh yeah go you know what i think all of us are going to probably say that Chelsea will slide out of the picture completely and finish seventh out of that that that
36:48
group of teams right but Dave what about you going from third down what you thinking i think Newcastle might finish third to be honest you look at where they now obviously three points off um obviously win their game in hand and they they go third and you you we've spoken about the difficulty of the fixture list um with for all teams really um they've they've got the momentum you know they're full of confidence i think they'll probably finish third i think Forest potentially fifth um I'm just sorry I'm just going through
37:21
the see the the teams I can see in front of me now as in the order of the the Premier League table and then I've got Man City finishing um fourth and Aston Villa finishing sixth after all we've been through Dave I know i just It's so unpredictable isn't it it is i think if any of those big games go either way and they're not a draw then it's a different picture if Villa beat City for example if Villa beat Newcastle for example then Villa suddenly looked like the team that could finish third or fourth that's what I mean i mean we're
37:51
having this conversation now i I honestly feel that we'll be no closer to having a definitive answer until we get to probably two or three weeks before the end of the season i think even the final day i don't That's what I mean i don't I think we could be having this discussion every sing you know every single week and I hope that's the case you know I hope you know it would be it'd be a shame now if it was to to fall off and somebody was to I think the great thing is that there's you know there's three places there Champions
38:17
League places um if we're assuming that Arsenal going to you know secure that second place which you'd imagine that they will do there's three places up for grabs and it's so so tight yeah i you know the more we've spoken about this I've kind of changed my mind as we've done it um it's interesting isn't it because I see the fixtures and you imagine how they're going to play out but I think you're right Dave I think Newcastle probably finished third um just by virtue of of the strength of their their team their squad and their
38:44
recent performances i think they're looking really impressive um I think Manchester City in fourth Villa in fifth and therefore obviously Nottingham Forest in sixth and again it's it's painful to say that really because we've rooted for Forest since they got promoted it was just great to see Forest back amongst the elite again but their their final run in is is difficult i think for a team that has suddenly found itself on the ropes a little bit unexpectedly as well the last two games have been a bit of a sucker punch for
39:09
Forest i'm not sure how they'll respond to that and they needed something out of those two games and got nothing so yeah this running now looks a lot more difficult for Forest so again apologies Forest fans we have plenty who watch us um this uh is painful to say but I think for Aston Villa it might be the inn forests four might be Villa's in um and again it depends on how any number of those games go that Villa face especially against the Newcastle and the city those games are going to be definitive aren't they but I can't see
39:37
them be anything other than draws which helps nobody and uh kind of yeah kills the conversation in some ways so yeah all to play for it feels um let's finish the pod on the Champions League demos we touched on it briefly psg results um it's a tough game wasn't it a tough watch really really good team with some excellent players karish Galia is a magical player isn't he and I can't really say how you can have any complaints about the result first of all it was a tough game wasn't it how did you feel i was so proud of them for most
40:07
of it i think they played I think Villa played excellently as well in their own way because for all the of Paris's dominance in so many key areas we held them at bay for a really long time and it took moments of absolute brilliance to break us down like Dlay's goal is is sensational there's not a keeper in the world that's saving that kramer Skellier's goal was again just something out of a textbook of beauty it was it was amazing the way he glides past the defenders i think obviously Dasion just
40:42
coming off the bench to kind of face that so early on it's really frustrating it's really really frustrating and then the third goal kills it that's the frustrating thing for me if we'd got out of there at 2-1 yeah i I I'm not saying I think we'll do it but there's something to play for still what worries me is a twogoal deficit isn't huge when you're the home side but there's there was nothing in that game that made me think it will be a completely different tie at Villa Park because look at what they did
41:09
at Anfield this PSG side there wasn't a huge drop off for them there in fact they they probably look better so yeah it's hard to say there's definitely things Villa can take from this there's definitely positives that they'll take from it and Emmery still seems quite confident which is interesting i don't know whether it's something that he just has to say for the press and to to psych his players up but I I kind of always trust him when he says these things there's still a part of me even if it's
41:35
a 1% chance there's a part of it that goes "Yeah but we could maybe." I think it'll be a completely different 11 i think it'll be a completely different style we have to go for it now whereas I think the whole point was to go to Paris and not let them steamroller at you so now at Villa Park we will take the game to them i think we'll see a a really different and more attacking liner and that could be really good because a lot of the time Paris didn't have anything to worry about so they were able to play
42:02
this free flowing game through the middle they were able to activate their wingers because what were Villa offering going forward in the first half Rashford was running in behind and it scared them there was a couple of moments and look at Rogers's goal we go one up that was an amazing thing and honestly I can't explain to you how good that felt but it showed that there was something to to do and in the second half I think they decided no let's just make sure we close this out now and they stopped looking
42:28
for that run and Rashford stopped kind of progressing out wide so I think we'll see a really different side on on Tuesday do you know what I found hilarious as I saw that Carrot Scaly goal and I was like "Oh it's been his near post there it should be doing a bit better." see the replay i was I was like "No fair enough." Absolutely he drilled that he couldn't hit it any better it was It was like It was like Gig's goal against Arsenal in the semi-final it was like absolutely smashed against the outside of the bar
42:56
got absolutely no chance do you think it Do you think uh Martinez will look at that DA goal and think I thought it's a great try no I thought I think it was just a great goal yeah I actually think Martinez had an absolutely brilliant game i think he was excellent i I think he might be frustrated with the third goal because obviously he gets sold with a dummy but even then he manages to get up quick enough to have a go at stopping it like I thought he was fantastic i think I think it's frustrating that he can play so well and
43:23
they still put three past us and Gracalia the difference he's made to this PSG team is unbelievable i mean you're leaving out Bradley Bakola because of these two wingers that you've got and that's a huge step in itself it's meant that Dembele can play more centrally so I think a lot of people in England saw Arsenal play PSG early in the competition and saw how narrowly they got through the group and thought well okay this isn't a side to worry about i'm telling you now they they look to me like the team that
43:53
will go on and win the whole thing and that that's frustrating because it means that I I I don't see us getting past him on Tuesday but you never know you never know i think I think there's definitely things we'll do differently watkins will start i'm pretty sure of that and I think he has to we've talked a lot about what Kins on on this podcast and I think he's horribly disrespected by a lot of football fans including Villa fans sometimes i don't think he gets the credit he deserves for being an
44:15
excellent forward and I think he will bring a lot to our game plan if he plays against PSG because the way he presses the way that he defends from the front we really missed that in the last game i think if actually that means Rashford can go out wide well all of a sudden Hakeime and Mendes they cannot be allowed to get so far up the pitch you have to have some sort of threat behind them and because Rashford was playing centrally we were kind of playing a bit with Ramsey and Rogers wide they're not
44:44
natural wide players they do come more centrally and it means the fullbacks were way too involved for PSG i would love to see us in this next game i'd probably start Bailey as well i'd probably go Bailey and Rashford out wide push the fullbacks deeper and then maybe even try Matson and get him to come and offer something there it would be very full throttle it would leave us a bit vulnerable at the back but what have you got to lose at this stage what is going to be the heart of that it's interesting
45:10
i saw um a headline on one of the the French newspapers or website saying this wasn't Aston Villa and it wasn't what they expected to see a team sitting so deep and not actually going for it as much and I was surprised that Villa didn't try and and and score more than one and it didn't look like they were trying to score more than one and I think once they did go one nil up it felt like they wanted to a defend that but then also b it was completely impossible against this PhD side to defend that at the park de France as
45:35
well it was very difficult ask so I do hope we do see something more full throttle from Villa they've got to go for it they've got nothing to lose there's no there's no shame in being defeated heavily by this PSG team as long as you go for it and I think that's what I think Villa fans want to see too right just a real effort to get on at least a level footing would be amazing and I know that's a big ask you've got to score first but definitely you got to not concede really in many ways and yeah
46:01
that's the challenge how you feeling i think it's fair for people to say it didn't seem very villa in the first leg but it's very Emmery in a European competition i think it makes a lot of sense you're the underdog and it's the away fixture so you have to make sure that things are tight i do think the way he's talking already I think they want to go for it at home they have to you are right and that's exciting it might not work but I will love watching the game the thing is it was a very entertaining game of football to watch
46:27
because it felt like a chess match it was waiting for PSG to just produce a moment and that's what it took fortunately that would work against some teams it genuinely would i would fancy us playing that way against a lot of very good European sides that's how we got results against Bayern that's how we did all right against Juve like we've we've got that in our locker but PSG is just too good they've got individuals who are capable of those moments and we've got to be careful that we don't get hurt by that at Villa Park all I'll
46:55
say is can we really see I I don't like to say it out loud their two wingers had the best games of their career it felt like against us do they can you rely on them doing that again because that's what it will take to break us down again because we've been excellent defensively at Villa Park in the Champions League you know Martinez is there you know he's up for it i would probably change the back four i wouldn't start Cash i don't think that's the one that makes sense i wish we'd started Concer at right back
47:22
in this one i think he makes loads more sense than Dassi he's got more pace in that position he's more familiar with it i'd rather see Conc right back and Zassi as the right and center back than the other way around i think gets beat like No I don't think he does like Dassi does against Kat i thought the same thing there he wants he wants to get inside on that foot and drill it the way he did i thought that was I wouldn't say poor defending him but naive he disguises it very well but I thought yeah I thought
47:50
he could have done better he needed to grow into the game as well like I say what it was 48 minutes and he came on at halftime like that's that's the frustrating thing he didn't have time to catch the pace of the game the the the change made a lot of sense because cash was already on a yellow and and cash can be a bit erratic at times and the last thing we needed was to go down to 10 i maybe would have made the change at like 55 minutes though just to kind of because Villa are not very we've seen
48:13
this a few times this season the start of a game and the start of the second half we we get hit quite a lot i'd rather we'd had a bit of stability to get us underway and then thought about a change maybe but it is what it is and if if again if that third goal doesn't go in you walk away going it's a bloody good result and we actually could do something here that's true the optics change a lot with a 2-1 back to Villa Park don't they so I mean still all to play for for Villa really but they've got to play for it they've got to fight
48:40
and that'll be the the challenge and the interesting thing for neutrals to see probably interested is not the right word for you Myles i think it's going to be an absolute Yeah a real nervy occasion but looking at the other games in Europe as well obviously Arsenal completely thumping Real Madrid with a Declan Rice inspired performance two amazing free kicks from him they are three-0 up going into their second leg um talking about United as well Dave before we go obviously that performance against Newcastle doesn't help the
49:06
optics of of the coming fixture against Lyon but apart from that terrible calamity from um Onana it wasn't a bad performance overall and it feels gutting that that is what took the headlines when actually we did okay to even come away with with a a draw against Lyon it should have been a win really how you feeling about the second leg we should get the job done but again like this is a fairly decent lead on side with a lot of threatening players and like you say a lot of our performances this season
49:34
have been masked by individual errors by a number of players um and that could easily be our our undoing again um so I'm never confident going into a game now especially you know this season of not being confident going to any game and I think you expect the unexpected because that's just the way we are as a team yeah on that positive note guys we're gonna call it a day for this podcast this week um yeah we look forward to talking about those European games hopefully with a positive light and we'll keep an eye closely on this
50:03
Champions League running in the Premier League because it looks as we've spoken about throughout this whole last 45 50 minutes a really fascinating running but until then guys until next week's pod enjoy it hopefully have a good one i'll see you then cheers see you later
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